Red Tide Prediction and Tracking in Tampa Bay Region

The "X" represents the starting point where each sample was collected. The lines show the 3.5 day trajectory for each sample. The color represents the red tide concentration for each sample. White lines represent simulated drifter trajectories. The red tide prediction and tracking is also shown as static plots. Please click here to go back to the WFCOM-based red tide tracking home page.

A higher resolution Tampa Bay Circulation Model (TBCOM) focuses on this region, please check more detailed information for the estuaries and inlets from this webpage, and for the region near Tampa Bay Watch zoom-in movies are also available.

Once a bloom occurs, the Florida Wildlife Research Institute (FWRI) conducts K. brevis sampling and provides cell count observations to the CMS-USF team. The USF team then inputs these into an ocean circulation model to forecast where these cells may go over the next 4.5 days. With the cell counts a day old when received, the forecast consists of a 1-day hindcast followed by a 3.5-day forecast using our daily, automated West Florida Coastal Ocean Model (WFCOM). The "X" represents the starting point where each sample was collected. The lines show the 3.5 day trajectory for each sample. The color represents the red tide concentration for each sample. White lines are not indicative of red tide; instead, they show where the current would take a simulated buoyant particle. These may be useful for search and rescue, or for tracking hazardous spills. The short-term red tide trajectory forecast products (surface and subsurface) are updated daily in early morning.

Given the short-term forecasts and the recognition that the spatial sampling is limited, blooms may be patchy, and trajectory forecasts include errors, we further produce a more general and user-friendly map to show where a red tide bloom may occur along the coast over the next several days. This product is updated every Wednesday and Friday.

References:

Liu, Y., Weisberg, R.H., Zheng, L., Hubbard, K.A., Muhlbach, E.G., Garrett, M.J., Hu, C., Cannizzaro, J.P., Xie, Y., Chen, J., John, S., Liu, L.Y. (2023), Short-term forecast of Karenia brevis trajectory on the West Florida Shelf, Deep-Sea Research Part II, 212, 105335, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2023.105335

Liu, Y., Weisberg, R.H., Zheng, L., Heil, C.A., Hubbard, K.A. (2022), Termination of the 2018 Florida red tide event: A tracer model perspective, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 272, 107901, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2022.107901

Weisberg, R.H., Liu, Y., Lembke, C., Hu, C., Hubbard, K., Garrett, M. (2019), The coastal ocean circulation influence on the 2018 West Florida Shelf K. brevis red tide bloom, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 124, 2501-2512, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014887.

Liu, Y., R.H. Weisberg, J.M. Lenes, L. Zheng, K. Hubbard, and J.J. Walsh (2016), Offshore forcing on the "pressure point" of the West Florida Shelf: Anomalous upwelling and its influence on harmful algal blooms, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, 5501-5515, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JC011938.

Weisberg, R.H., L. Zheng, Y. Liu, A.A. Corcoran, C. Lembke, C. Hu, J.M. Lenes, and J.J. Walsh (2016), Karenia brevis blooms on the West Florida Shelf: A comparative study of the robust 2012 bloom and the nearly null 2013 event, Cont. Shelf Res., 120, 106-121, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2016.03.011.

Weisberg, R.H., L. Zheng, Y. Liu, C. Lembke, J.M. Lenes, and J.J. Walsh (2014), Why no red tide was observed on the west Florida continental shelf in 2010, Harmful Algae, 38, 119-136, doi:10.1016/j.hal.2014.04.010.

Zheng, L.Y., and R.H. Weisberg (2012), Modeling the west Florida coastal ocean by downscaling from the deep ocean, across the continental shelf and into the estuaries, Ocean Modell., 48, 10-29, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.02.002.

Acknowledgements

The FVCOM HAB tracking tool has benefited from several sources of funding beginning with the FWC and USF. Additional resources from ONR, NOAA and NASA have helped advance the modeling effort over the years. Current support is by NOAA/IOOS/SECOORA, NOAA/USF COMIT, NOAA/ECOHAB, State of Forida through FWC/FWRI, and Florida DEP.